U.S. equities extended their bullish trend in September, confirming strong fundamentals despite some consolidation phases. The S&P 500 remains firmly above its key technical support levels and still shows potential to rise toward 6,950/7,000 points by year-end, an upside of about 5%.
Recent profit-taking episodes—mainly driven by institutional investors and hedge funds—have clearly subsided, highlighting the robustness of the ongoing bull cycle.
Momentum continues to be powered by the theme of artificial intelligence, the real engine of the current supercycle. Since 2022, AI has accounted for over 75% of the S&P 500’s performance, 80% of profit growth, and attracts nearly 90% of investment flows, while valuations of leaders like Nvidia (~26.5x projected earnings for 2026) remain sustainable, well below the extremes of the dot-com bubble. However, rigorous selection is essential: only players with a structural advantage should benefit sustainably from this trend.
The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts act as a catalyst for the next bullish cycle and relax financial conditions, with the manufacturing ISM expected above 50, lower mortgage rates, and a supportive climate for U.S. corporate investment. Institutional caution, contrasting with individual investor optimism, supports the scenario of a market in a mid-cycle phase, suggesting further momentum on a medium-term view.
The Swiss market shows resilience, in a context marked by the strength of the franc, which continues to weigh on exporters’ competitiveness. The pharmaceutical sector, a structural pillar, must deal with changing tariffs and protectionist measures that could affect margins temporarily. Still, the quality of large caps, their innovation capacity, and market stability allow for a constructive long-term outlook.
In Europe, caution prevails: political instability, especially in France with successive governments, limits visibility and dampens risk appetite within the euro zone.
Finally, gold’s performance in 2025 is particularly remarkable: the surging yellow metal highlights its haven status amid geopolitical and inflationary uncertainty.
These factors reflect a global environment favorable to investment, driven by strong innovation engines and solid economies.
