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Markets have had a clear reminder over the past few days that political unpredictability is still a powerful source of volatility. The contrast between last year’s “Liberation Day” and today’s escalation with Iran is striking, and once again March and April are proving difficult months for President Trump. At the same time, Democrats are making inroads from Texas to Mar a Lago: recent local elections in traditionally Republican areas of Texas have flipped to blue, and a Democratic candidate has just won in the very district that includes Mar a Lago. For a president who openly treats the stock market as his primary scoreboard, watching his base erode on such symbolic ground is a genuine setback and increases the likelihood that he will try to put a so-called Trump put under risk assets. On the geopolitical front, the third week of open conflict between the United States and Iran has

We were about to send you the following note on Friday… and then, within a matter of hours, the world changed. February is ending with the S&P 500 down a modest 0.87%, but it certainly did not feel that way: for many investors, the month looked and felt like a bear market. We were nonetheless heading into March with a constructive mindset, expecting an up month that would feel quite different from what we had just gone through. Our view was (and still is) that valuations have largely reset and that selling pressure has, for the most part, been exhausted. In the meantime, the geopolitical backdrop has shifted dramatically. The joint Israeli–American attack has thrown the Middle East into a new phase of turmoil, with intensified bombing, the direct involvement of several regional capitals, and mounting tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. The combination of strikes, counter‑strikes and increasingly heated

January is ending and our nerves have already had their fair share of rollercoasters. The “Trump shock” has been front and center from day one, with repeated salvos on the dollar, tough talk on trade and now the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Fed. All the ingredients of an institutional soap opera are in place: a highly interventionist president on monetary matters, a future central bank head with a strong profile, and, in the background, the sensitive question of Fed independence. It is reasonable to expect markets to trade in sync with Senate hearings, media leaks and conflicting statements, triggering frequent bursts of volatility in the dollar, rates and, by extension, equities. In this more unsettled environment, we remain constructive for 2026. Our base case still assumes positive global growth, gradually easing inflation and central banks that, in our view, will need to turn more accommodative as the year progresses.

In November, equity markets once again reflected the defining pattern of 2025: frequent bouts of volatility, but no real break in the underlying uptrend. The S&P 500 fell as much as 6% from its October highs before staging a sharp rebound during the shortened Thanksgiving week, ultimately closing the month with a modest gain of around 0.4%. This was already the seventh correction of at least 3% this year, underlining that such pullbacks are now a built-in feature of this market regime rather than a signal of an imminent change in cycle. This back-and-forth has left a clear mark on investor psychology, especially among retail investors. Sentiment surveys remain in negative territory, consistent with a perception of a “fragile” market overly dependent on a handful of large growth names. Yet this persistent caution stands in contrast to broadly resilient macro data and solid corporate earnings, which argues for interpreting the

Global markets continued their upward momentum in October, buoyed by robust earnings and a constructive political backdrop. The S&P 500 is expected to close the month up 2% following a brief correction mid-October. In this favorable seasonal environment, we maintain a measured optimism and view every market pullback as an opportunity for strategic portfolio repositioning. Key market Highlights Despite lingering concerns such as risks in private credit and the U.S. government shutdown, American companies have displayed remarkable agility. Amazon’s latest results underscore the strategic importance of technology investments to overcome macroeconomic challenges and prepare for the next growth phase. A further monetary easing by the Fed could occur as soon as December, even as the central bank remains cautious and vague on the exact timetable. The combination of favorable seasonality, persistent portfolio underexposure, and strong earnings momentum suggests at least an additional 5% upside by year-end, with the S&P 500

U.S. equities extended their bullish trend in September, confirming strong fundamentals despite some consolidation phases. The S&P 500 remains firmly above its key technical support levels and still shows potential to rise toward 6,950/7,000 points by year-end, an upside of about 5%. Recent profit-taking episodes—mainly driven by institutional investors and hedge funds—have clearly subsided, highlighting the robustness of the ongoing bull cycle. Momentum continues to be powered by the theme of artificial intelligence, the real engine of the current supercycle. Since 2022, AI has accounted for over 75% of the S&P 500’s performance, 80% of profit growth, and attracts nearly 90% of investment flows, while valuations of leaders like Nvidia (~26.5x projected earnings for 2026) remain sustainable, well below the extremes of the dot-com bubble. However, rigorous selection is essential: only players with a structural advantage should benefit sustainably from this trend. The Federal Reserve’s rate cuts act as a