As we anticipated in our previous monthly report, the positive seasonality of May was fully confirmed, with equity markets showing strong performance and driven by a bullish momentum. The main indices posted notable gains: +4.8% for the Eurostoxx 600, +6.2% for the S&P 500, and +9% for the Nasdaq 100, supported in particular by the performance of major US technology stocks.
On the macroeconomic front, global activity showed signs of resilience. PMI indicators rebounded, signaling an economy that remains robust, while inflation stayed contained: in Switzerland, it reached 0% in April, and in the United States, CPI inflation slowed to 2.4%. This control over inflation allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain the status quo on interest rates, thereby supporting market confidence.
From a microeconomic perspective, the first-quarter earnings season was generally solid, with many companies exceeding expectations despite more cautious outlooks for the rest of the year. Recent pullbacks were limited and provided good buying opportunities, especially in growth stocks and innovative sectors.
Historically, this favorable trend often continues into June: we believe the current environment offers all the conditions for this pattern to repeat this year. Despite the rise in indices, investor skepticism remains pronounced, creating a supportive environment for the ongoing market rebound.
The main supporting factors remain:
- Increase in money supply: The rapid growth of the M2 money supply is an important support for markets in 2025.
- Deregulation and tax cuts in the United States: These measures stimulate growth, investment, and consumption.
- Easing inflation: The slowdown in US inflation paves the way for a more accommodative monetary policy.
- Main risk: Uncertainty regarding tariffs remains a key factor to monitor.
In summary, May was marked by a clear rebound in equity markets, supported by macroeconomic resilience, contained inflation, and solid corporate results. The momentum remains positive for the coming months, with opportunities to seize in an environment still characterized by investor skepticism and some lingering uncertainties, especially on the trade front.
