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Following the July correction, particularly in technology and semiconductors, markets rebounded during August. Nvidia’s results confirmed the continued strength of artificial-intelligence demand and revived interest in semiconductors, memory and computing infrastructure. This rebound partly confirms our assessment from last month: the summer decline was primarily a deleveraging and positioning event rather than a challenge to the underlying AI investment cycle. Hyperscaler spending remains substantial and earnings growth is still resilient. However, the rebound has also materially reduced the margin of safety created by the July correction. Markets have quickly returned to a more complacent environment, even as macroeconomic, political and geopolitical risks continue to build. In other words, the immediate risk is not necessarily an outright decline, but rather a market that has become highly sensitive to any negative surprise. The first risk remains the bond market. At Jackson Hole, Kevin Warsh delivered a materially more hawkish message than investors

Loud Month, Solid Fundamentals July was a volatile month, though less uniformly negative than the sharpness of the tech correction might suggest. The S&P 500 ended the month essentially flat, down just 0.1%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell around 3.2% and the Nasdaq 100, more concentrated in semiconductors, dropped nearly 7%, its worst monthly performance since March 2025; intramonth, the index briefly traded more than 10% below its all-time high. The Dow Jones, by contrast, rose about 0.3% and extended its winning streak to a fourth consecutive month. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 gained roughly 1.3% for the month, also its fourth straight monthly gain, closing at a fresh record late in the month, and the DAX likewise set a new all-time high on July 6 before easing back slightly to end the month near its peak. The catalyst for the tech correction came from TSMC’s results. They were better

In May, markets recovered most of the March–April drawdown. We used that rebound as an opportunity to reduce exposure rather than as an invitation to add beta. In June, we continued this de‑risking gradually: we remain invested, but with portfolios aligned to a market regime that is still supportive over the medium term, yet clearly more demanding. Over the past month or so, markets have broadly traded sideways. Following the sharp rebound between April and May, indices have moved into a consolidation phase, lacking a strong enough catalyst to extend the uptrend. This pause comes just as some of the key drivers of the rebound, most notably AI‑related capex, are starting to show signs of strain. The volatility seen in the semiconductor space since 1 April is the clearest illustration of this: the segment has captured a disproportionate share of recent performance, driven by the AI spending wave and a

REDUCING, STILL in June… In April, we wrote that markets had already exploded higher and that everything that followed would be a bonus to capture. We acted accordingly: we began reducing exposures significantly, and we will continue that process through the first two weeks of June. This is not a change of course; it is the execution of a plan we announced. The May rally illustrates precisely why this discipline matters. The S&P 500 gained 5% on the month, the Nasdaq 8%. These figures are accurate but misleading. The broad index moved higher, but most of the advance was driven by an extremely narrow group of names: technology now accounts for approximately 32% of the S&P 500, and the top ten holdings represent nearly 37% of index weight. We saw exactly this dynamic with gold at the start of the year: a parabolic rise, an unassailable narrative, then a sharp

After the Rally, Stay Disciplined In April, the S&P 500 has rallied by about 15% from its recent low and is now approaching a first tactical resistance area around 7’300 points, extending towards 7’400, which we see as a zone to reduce risk rather than increase it. Our central scenario remains positive, with a year‑end target of 7’700 points, but we expect an intermediate correction of roughly 15–20%, potentially towards 6’500, before that upside can be realised. In other words, we stay constructive on the medium‑term trend, but current levels are, in our view, more appropriate for trimming exposure than for adding to it. The latest earnings season clearly supports the bull case, yet most of the good news is already reflected in valuations and no longer provides a fresh boost to multiples. The main reason for this expected consolidation is the leadership change at the Federal Reserve. In most

Markets have had a clear reminder over the past few days that political unpredictability is still a powerful source of volatility. The contrast between last year’s “Liberation Day” and today’s escalation with Iran is striking, and once again March and April are proving difficult months for President Trump. At the same time, Democrats are making inroads from Texas to Mar a Lago: recent local elections in traditionally Republican areas of Texas have flipped to blue, and a Democratic candidate has just won in the very district that includes Mar a Lago. For a president who openly treats the stock market as his primary scoreboard, watching his base erode on such symbolic ground is a genuine setback and increases the likelihood that he will try to put a so-called Trump put under risk assets. On the geopolitical front, the third week of open conflict between the United States and Iran has